I have been abroad for two weeks and was off-line. Sadly, the recent weather development over Serbia and Bosnia (weather history was covered by two posts, a couple of weeks ago; here and here) was severe. I want to briefly cite a statement of the German Weather Service as of May 16:
Schwere Unwetter in Südosteuropa – Das Satellitenbild zeigt die Wolkenspirale eines für die Jahreszeit ungewöhnlich heftigen Sturmtiefs über dem Balkan. Warme und feuchte Mittelmeerluft schiebt sich über kalte Polarluft. Die Folge waren extreme Regenfälle in Serbien, in der Region um Belgard sowie im Nordosten von Bosnien-Herzegowina. Die Karte zeigt die 24-stündigen Niederschlagsmengen. Gebietsweise sind innerhalb von 2 Tagen über 180 Liter/qm Niederschlag gefallen, die zu Erdrutsche und Überschwemmungen führten. Normal sind dort Niederschlagsmengen von etwa 70 Liter/qm im ganzen Mai. Das Regengebiet ist nach Nordwesten abgezogen. Derzeit konzentrieren sich der Niederschlag auf den Nordstau der österreichischen Alpen von Salzburg bis zur Rax. Dort kamen ebenfalls bereits über 100 Liter/qm Niederschlag zusammen.
Here are some images, illustrating the situation:
In a former post, I had a look at gauge Veliko Selo in Serbia. Here is an update:
For some areas of Serbia, the was the third major event in 2014 (April, first decade of May, mid-May). Whereas the event in the first May decade was quite locally, the recent event hit large areas of Serbia and Bosnia and was much more devastating than the April event (which was also a bit more focussed on smaller catchments).
As a consequence, also the large stream systems (e.g., the Sava) featured a major (~100-year) flood flow:
Octave is approaching Version 4. On the way to that major build, Version 3.8 was released recently and features a GUI, which is something many users were waiting for. A Windows build (which is also available as portable version (!)) can be found here.
However, there are still some flaws which should be fixed with the next major release. For instance, I was not yet able to tell Octave how to use Ghostscipt for graphics export properly.
On the other hand, to me, everything feels right and with a strong Matlab-IDE flavour. In other words: I am quite enthusiastic about the new GUI (which is a giant improvement compared to qtOctave, which is dead yet).
48 hrs ago, GFS showed a Genoa low signal for May 11 to 13 which would have had an impact on Germany/Saxony (see my recent post). Although being not that strong than the low causing the Central European floods of May/June 2013, the predicted general circulation pattern was quite comparable to that of 2013 (compare first and second column of Fig. 1).
At this time, the signal disappears for the mid-range (May 8 to 13) as the third column in Fig. 1 shows.
However, as of today, GFS shows the formation of a quite strong Genoa low, going on right now (see Figures 2 and 3) with heavy rainfall being expected for Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Romania within the next three days.
The same story is told by COSMO-LEPS (for details see here), showing a high probability for heavy precipitation over the aforementioned area between May 4 and 5 (see Fig. 4).