48 hrs ago, GFS showed a Genoa low signal for May 11 to 13 which would have had an impact on Germany/Saxony (see my recent post). Although being not that strong than the low causing the Central European floods of May/June 2013, the predicted general circulation pattern was quite comparable to that of 2013 (compare first and second column of Fig. 1).
At this time, the signal disappears for the mid-range (May 8 to 13) as the third column in Fig. 1 shows.
However, as of today, GFS shows the formation of a quite strong Genoa low, going on right now (see Figures 2 and 3) with heavy rainfall being expected for Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Romania within the next three days.
The same story is told by COSMO-LEPS (for details see here), showing a high probability for heavy precipitation over the aforementioned area between May 4 and 5 (see Fig. 4).